I don't want to dwell on gloom and doom, but you all know that the party is going to end. You just don't know when or how. It ended for the Dinosaurs in a second and it didn't take long to end the Ice Age just 10,000 years ago. You might not know what is next, but you know that it is coming. I have not been taking the Global Warming people seriously for some time, but the Doomsday Preppers have got me to rethinking the subject.
First, let's consider "when". In the case of the meteor that took out the Dinosaurs, that only took a few seconds with no warning. Most did not starve, most suffocated. That only took minutes. Mass amounts of carbon dioxide were released from the oceans like gas from a Coke. It killed most life and then it was gone and no trace can mow be found. The Ice Age was a different story. That one was like a dam than had held for thousands of years being finally topped over. In a case like that it only took a short time before the water cut thru the dam and all the water ran out even though it had held water for thousands of years. It was all over in a very short time. Could these types of things happen again. You bet and I expect them to come fast once they start. The "when" could be any time.
Next, "how"? There are too many to list, but we know that only a very few can be either prevented or delayed. Here is a way to look at it. Let's say that you are playing the lottery and the chances of winning is 1 in a 10 million and a ticket will cost $1.00 with a chance to win $100,000. How much would you pay for a ticket that would double your odds of winning? This is what we have going on with Global Warming and many people feel that there is "no" limit to how much we should spend now in the USA, even if 90% of the rest of the world is doing nothing. Global Warming is one way that the party could end, but that would be slow and give us a chance to "adjust" by moving or reducing world population. In the case of Global Warming, no matter what happens, not everyone will die. Some will survive. The Doomsday Preppers take the position that they will be the ones who survive.
My feeling is that the party will end first due to over population. The world population doubles every 33 years so that in 100 years, there will be 8 times as many people as there are now. That means we will need 8 times as much food and energy. If the USA, with 2% of the world's population uses 20% of the world oil, in 100 years, we will use at least 160% of the world's current production of oil. Now what do you think the rest of the world will be doing in the mean time? In 100 more years the rest of the world will have 392 times the number of people who now live in the USA. I would expect that if those people want a better quality of life that their energy use would have to at least double from it current rate. That means they will need 16 times as much energy as they now consume.
Wait, how about the efficiency factor. What is that? You ask. The first fruit on a tree is the easiest to pick and takes the least effort or energy. We have picked all the easy fruit and now we have to go for the fruit on the highest branches. That is the efficiency factor that we face. It means that we will need many times more energy than the 16 times that I mention above. It could be more like 50 times. This is what I tried to explain with the dam example. When the water goes over the dam, it happens very fast and total failure is only hours away. There is no more good farm land on this earth that is not now being farmed. There are no rivers that can be economically dammed. it is up hill from here and it will be very steep. This is why trying to save the world with "green energy" is a total waste. You can't get there from here. Remember the drunk who was looking for his car keys down the block from where he parked his car? When asked why he was looking down the block and not near his car, he said, "there is no street light by my car". This is the trap that many good meaning people have stepped into and I don't see any way to show them the way out.
The party is going to end and it will be sooner than you think and it will not be by the means you predicted. What do we do? Try to save the world or save ourselves? I am a good guy and enjoy helping people, but when it becomes my final choice, I look out for number one and my family. That has been the rule that has worked since the days of the caveman and it is still rule #1.
PS------
Did the Indian Ghost Dance save the Buffalo? Did carving big stone heads save Easter Island. Did bleeding Abe Lincoln save his life? Will Green Energy save the Earth? More people should think about how they are going to save themselves.
If you did not get the right answer to the Lottery ticket question, I don't think you will be around when the party is over.
