Thursday, February 20, 2025

Error

 I think you all know that we make"errors" all the time when we want to make the right decision or the exactly right answer.  In school you take tests that are a choice between "right" and "wrong".  We need a strategy about "errors"  This blog will show you a strategy.

We all have to admit that we make errors all the time, so the big question we should be thinking about is "Which side of the decision is it best to error on?" Did you ever think about that?  I first started thinking about the subject when I was in high school.  I was into deer hunting and in California we had to make some very long shots.  Back in those days, we did not have any laser range finders, so we had to estimate the range.  Once we had made our estimate, we had to think about how much off it might be.  We also had to think about if it was too short or too long.  If that was not complicated or not, we still had to estimate if it was better to error high or too low with our shot.  My big question for you is, "What decision you would make regarding the height of your shot?  What would you do?

Back when I was in high school, I will tell you what I decided and why.  I decided to aim my rifle at the deer's top of their back.  The reason was that the deer normally looked closer than it really was, plus if my shot went over the deer's back the deer would not be scared off and I might get a second shot.  Now what was your logic?

As it turns out, all of our decisions are subject too errors and we need to think about how we deal with that error.  Perfect in decision making is just not possible even if we try to convince ourselves that it is. How about a sex change because you are 12 years old and you think you are mentally the opposite sec? Now you have to make a decision on how you are going to deal with your mental concern,  It is common knowledge that young people go thru a major hormone change between about 12 and 21.  This impacts all kinds of things in your body and mind that you have never experienced before.  That means it is a totally "new" are for the individual.  Now, how do you deal with the error that any decision contains?

You have to think about which side of the decision is it the most wise to error on?  Those are (1) Decide on making the decision for a sex change "now" that is irreversible. (2) Wait for more information and hormone impact on your mind and body and make the decision later.  Notice if you take option (1)  that you can never take option (2), but it you take option (2) later you have the option of picking option (1). Isn't it clear that selecting option (2) is the right option?

You can apply this concept to most all decision just like I applied it to deer hunting when I was a teenager.