If you have never heard of the concept of "Type 1 and Type 2 Error", this blog will explain its significance.
I am going to explain this concept as it relates to Blacks vs Whites. This is not about racism, so don't get excited. Think about it this way. You are giving kids a test to see if they are qualified to enter a college. Grades are one component, but let's just focus on the entrance exam here. The purpose of the entrance exam is to make sure that unqualified kids do not get accepted so that those who are accepted have a good chance of graduating with a degree. This sounds logical and it is, but there are some fine points that also apply and that is where Type 1 and Type 2 error come in.
As stated above, no one wants kids to be accepted to college who are going to end up being flunked out. It would have been an error to have ever let that kid into college in the first place. That error is what we call "Type 1 Error". That is the main reason for the testing, but here is what can happen with testing. What if a good kid is rejected? Is anyone concerned about that kid? Rejecting a good kid is what is called "Type 2 Error and it happens a lot more than you might think.
As long as we have a surplus of smart kids, who cares if a few good ones are rejected? At least we don't waste the taxpayers money on kids who would have flunked out! Here is what I feel is one of the main problems with this whole concept. If we have a surplus of good kids and reject a few, we still end up with the college class full and we graduate all the engineers and scientists that we need. What if things have changed and we need a lot more engineers? If that is the case, we can not be so sloppy that our testing rejects good kids and we all know that we are not producing enough engineers and doctors today and it is getting worse all the time. This brings me to my final point.
Based on every thing we know about Blacks and Whites, it has to be clear that both groups have about the same average IQ, but we are not ending up with proportionate numbers of Blacks and Whites graduating as engineers and doctors or are they accepted into college in the same proportions. Why is that? I think that it because of our testing. The current testing seems to be working for Whites where a minimum of Whites are rejected by the test for "Type 2 Error", but I do not think that is the case for Blacks. If both groups are about equal, why are the test results so different? Why is it that so many Blacks who pass the test do not graduate or do not earn degrees in engineering or medicine? It looks to me like there are far too many Type 1 and Type 2 errors with the current testing when it come to Blacks.
Given the economic trends in both the USA and the world, we can not afford our current high level of type 1 and type 2 error when it comes to accepting or rejecting Blacks for college. I don't have the solution, but it is clear to me where one of the most significant problems is. I have used this concept before where a student gets very good grades in Math until they have to deal with "word" problems. If the objective of the testing was to find out if the person could do "word" problems and we only tested if they knew how to add, subtract, divide and multiply, it would be a worthless test.
The USA can not afford a college entrance testing system that does not get the most out of the Black community. I know that the talent it there, but out current systems don't seem able to sort it out. That is the problem and we can no afford to continue without a solution.
PS--Remember the Tuskegee Airmen? Why were they better "on average" than our White pilots during WWII? Think about it!
