Here we go again. The Obama administration can't comment until they have "all the facts". It seems this is the automatic stall tactic of Obama. I blogged before that it is impossible to ever have "all" the facts. To make a decision, all you need is "enough" facts and I think we already have them. Here is a short lesson in Decision Theory 101 using the Boeing 777 plane that was shot down.
First we have to layout all the possible ways the plane could have been shot down and by whom. This is a short list. I come up with only four:
* The Russians
* The rebels
* The Ukraine
* Bomb on board
Next we state what we would do, depending on which of the above turns out to be true. In all cases, we would do nothing. Obama would only shoot off his mouth. If that is the case, why spend time and money getting all the facts? Obama should just start shooting off his mouth right now and save the time and money.
I could make this a little more complicated by assigning probability values from the data that we already have. If I did that, I could eliminate, *The Ukraine and *Bomb on board. That just leaves the top two and you know that in either case, we would do exactly "nothing".
Isn't Decision Theory 101 great?
