This title has little to do with the theme of this blog? From time to time my coffee clutch friends get off on some interesting topics and this is one. How smart are we? Are we smart enough?
Does the level of smarts of the human race stay the same over time? Well, I can tell you that almost nothing stays the same over time, so it must apply to humans smarts as well. This automatically leads to the next question. If our level of smarts changes over time, is it going "up" or "down"? I don't know, but I hope that it is going "up". By looking around the world at technology, one could easily conclude that it is going "up", but not so fast. There are other things that are changing too and they might blur the picture a little. Take education and the changes in the efficiency of spreading knowledge. Isn't it clear that if some human discovers something in a cave someplace, that new knowledge can spread around the world in just a few hours. The implication is that we are now a lot smarter than we were just a few hours ago, when in fact, we only have more knowledge and not necessarily any smarter. Starting to get the point?
Here is another slant. Some person invented a "black box" that can solve very complex problems that used to only be solvable by the smartest and most educated person. In the past, we would have paid handsomely for that answer. Does that mean that an average person pressing the buttons on this "black box" is as valuable as the person who solved this same problem in the past? I don't think so. Does it mean we will need fewer engineers and scientists in the future now that we have this "black box"? Again, I don't think so, but the engineers and scientists of the future will have to be more competent than those of the past. Why is that?
If the engineers and scientists of the future are not more competent, we will end up standing still or going backwards. Here is another way to look at it. Years ago we "valued" the worth of a person who could high jump 7' or run a mile in 4 minutes, but now those feats are common place and are not valued as high as in the past. I think it is the same with engineers and scientists. Notice also that even though the highs have gone up and times have gone down for the physical feats above, we all know there is an upper limit. Fewer and fewer people will be able to raise the new records and it will be much longer in between new records. I think that the broad jump record stood for over 25 years before it was broken. What this is all boiling down too is that our growth in technology is following this same path and its impact on quality of life for us humans will be the same.
There is yet another angle to all of this and that the future mix of wealth and quality of life for us humans. Here is an example. 200 years ago we could have 10 immigrants picked at random who were smart enough to walk behind a mule and a plow. After plowing all day the difference in the amount of land plowed would be within a range of +/- 25%. Today if 10 similar people were picked to complete a 50 yard pass, in the distribution, we would be lucky if we got one who could complete the pass. My point is that as the human race progresses, fewer and fewer people will have what it takes to be competitive and the difference in "worth" of those people will continue to get wider and wider. It is not that those at the bottom are making little or no progress, but that those at the top are moving faster. Sorry but that is our future.
We have already used up most of the smarts of the human race. Better education and the efficient spreading of new knowledge will help, but it can not overcome the fact that future demands on smarts will eventually exhaust our smart resources. When it gets to the point where 90% of humans are not qualified to "play", I don't know what is going to happen. I don't think that the fact that 90% of the people will be rioting will not change anything. Right now in the USA, 10% of the people pay 90%of the taxes. We are at the point now that I have been describing and we are still "digging"!
My final point. Don't be taken in by the illusion of technology just because your kid can push a button on a "black box". Rather than being part of the future economy, he may just be an anchor actually holding back progress. As in the past, your value is a function of how rare your ability is. If anyone can do it, it is not worth much!!.
Does the level of smarts of the human race stay the same over time? Well, I can tell you that almost nothing stays the same over time, so it must apply to humans smarts as well. This automatically leads to the next question. If our level of smarts changes over time, is it going "up" or "down"? I don't know, but I hope that it is going "up". By looking around the world at technology, one could easily conclude that it is going "up", but not so fast. There are other things that are changing too and they might blur the picture a little. Take education and the changes in the efficiency of spreading knowledge. Isn't it clear that if some human discovers something in a cave someplace, that new knowledge can spread around the world in just a few hours. The implication is that we are now a lot smarter than we were just a few hours ago, when in fact, we only have more knowledge and not necessarily any smarter. Starting to get the point?
Here is another slant. Some person invented a "black box" that can solve very complex problems that used to only be solvable by the smartest and most educated person. In the past, we would have paid handsomely for that answer. Does that mean that an average person pressing the buttons on this "black box" is as valuable as the person who solved this same problem in the past? I don't think so. Does it mean we will need fewer engineers and scientists in the future now that we have this "black box"? Again, I don't think so, but the engineers and scientists of the future will have to be more competent than those of the past. Why is that?
If the engineers and scientists of the future are not more competent, we will end up standing still or going backwards. Here is another way to look at it. Years ago we "valued" the worth of a person who could high jump 7' or run a mile in 4 minutes, but now those feats are common place and are not valued as high as in the past. I think it is the same with engineers and scientists. Notice also that even though the highs have gone up and times have gone down for the physical feats above, we all know there is an upper limit. Fewer and fewer people will be able to raise the new records and it will be much longer in between new records. I think that the broad jump record stood for over 25 years before it was broken. What this is all boiling down too is that our growth in technology is following this same path and its impact on quality of life for us humans will be the same.
There is yet another angle to all of this and that the future mix of wealth and quality of life for us humans. Here is an example. 200 years ago we could have 10 immigrants picked at random who were smart enough to walk behind a mule and a plow. After plowing all day the difference in the amount of land plowed would be within a range of +/- 25%. Today if 10 similar people were picked to complete a 50 yard pass, in the distribution, we would be lucky if we got one who could complete the pass. My point is that as the human race progresses, fewer and fewer people will have what it takes to be competitive and the difference in "worth" of those people will continue to get wider and wider. It is not that those at the bottom are making little or no progress, but that those at the top are moving faster. Sorry but that is our future.
We have already used up most of the smarts of the human race. Better education and the efficient spreading of new knowledge will help, but it can not overcome the fact that future demands on smarts will eventually exhaust our smart resources. When it gets to the point where 90% of humans are not qualified to "play", I don't know what is going to happen. I don't think that the fact that 90% of the people will be rioting will not change anything. Right now in the USA, 10% of the people pay 90%of the taxes. We are at the point now that I have been describing and we are still "digging"!
My final point. Don't be taken in by the illusion of technology just because your kid can push a button on a "black box". Rather than being part of the future economy, he may just be an anchor actually holding back progress. As in the past, your value is a function of how rare your ability is. If anyone can do it, it is not worth much!!.
