It appears very clear that we now have a world wide economic crisis. It looks to me like is will eventually have the same impact as the 1929 crash. Don't think so? How did the 1929 world wide crash finally end? What was the cure? Don't know? Most of the world hit rock bottom, like Germany, Japan, Russia, China and Europe after WWII. The people in these countries were cold and hungry just like we were in 1929. Why did Germany and Japan "start" WWII? Don't know that one either? Energy--Oil--Economics. When people are desperate, they do desperate things. 1929 and WWII were bad, real bad, but it could be worse now.
Now the population of the world is much larger than it was back then. All of the Earth's natural resources now have to be divided up among more people and we have already used up a lot of them, so the amount per person is very much smaller. When I was poor, like many people who were poor, I did not realize how poor I was. Now most people of the world know how poor they are and they don't like it. That is the main reason that we have such hot competition from around the world. They know that a better life is possible. I did not think it was possible when I was poor. Getting off the subject.
As the world's population has grown and the "good life" standard has gone up more want and expect the "good life". This is what I call a "double whammy". To drive the world's economies to the level required to provide the "good life" has meant that all of our systems have gotten a lot more brittle. You know what I mean by brittle. It means that now fewer pegs have to be pulled out to bring down the system than it did in the old days. Further, it will fall faster and harder now. If you watch the talking heads on TV, they are always looking back and making judgments based on a different "system state" than we have now. If they understood the "system" rather than the history of where the system had been, they might come up with the right answers. It is like watching where a fly has been and try to predict where he will go next. All systems engineers know that when you have a big complex system that you don't fully understand, it is critical not to make sudden changes. Obama is the biggest change that I have seen in my life. He does not have a clew about what he is doing or the full impact of his actions. If he is guided by Econ 101 or some Political Science class he took in school, there is no hope.
I made a prediction of those counties that will remain standing after all this has played out. Do you remember who they were and what facts that they had that would help them survive? Look it up. Of the big players, Russia is at the top of my list along with Canada. The USA will be there, but not one of the top players. Brazil will be there, but not on top. What were the factors? Energy, Food, Water, Low population density and Education will be the currency of the future. Who has them will be around. There will not be much left for the others. Sorry.
It is going to be interesting. I have my survival garden, do you?
