With all the sensational news reporting about the Covid-19, one has to be a detective to figure out what is really happening. I have tried to do some that in this blog.
Let's start with a few key facts and go from there. The latest count on deaths for NY is 20,828 and the population of the state is 8.5 million. That means the deaths so far are at the rate of 0.245% or 2.45 per 1,000 people. It gets more difficult from here on.
The reporting is that approximately 25% of those deaths were in nursing homes or 5,207. I am not sure if this includes the 1,700 they reported that they miscounted or if this number includes some in the nursing homes who would have died anyway of existing conditions. From other data of those who died in nursing homes, 93% had a serious prior health conditions and 85% had at least two. The number that I can not find is how many people in total are in nursing homes in New York.
To keep this analysis going, I am going to make some educated estimates and here they are:
Group %/Pop Pop # Deaths Deaths/1000
* people in nursing homes------------------------0.5% 42,500 5,207 122.5
* people working--------------------------------- 20.0% 1,700,000 3,124 1.8
* people staying home & not healthy -----5.5% 467,500 7,141 25.3
* People staying home & healthy---------74.0% 6,290,000 5,356 0.9
Total-------------100.0 % 8,500,000 20,828 13.8
That is 100% of the people. Now, what is the deaths in each group. According the Governor 60% were people who were staying at home. This means that 12,497 died at home. I estimated that at least 5.5% per thousand were not healthy and should die at close to the same rate as those in nursing homes or 20%. Now it gets a little tricky. Look at my chart. All the numbers add up so there is nothing left out. I stand by my basic estimates too.
Here is my conclusion:
The death rate is the worst in the nursing homes at 122.5 per thousand and staying home is the best for healthy people, but we know that healthy people would mostly be OK anyway. We know that a lot of those who stay home are over weight and have health problems like diabetes so 25.3 per thousand or about 20% of the rate of nursing home death rate looks about right. Finally for working people. Many of these are in very dangerous positions and many are also over weight and may have health problems themselves so a rate of 1.8 per thousand does seem logical.
Now that you have seen my numbers, what should be think and what should we do next? My guess is that healthy people go back to work and the death rate per thousand would go up from 0.9 to about 1.5 per thousand. What do you think and do you think it is worth it? Remember that more people are dying by just staying home from other causes. I don't have that number, but it looks to me like we would end up with fewer deaths in total if we all got back to work except those at greatest risk!
Note also that some of the 0,9 deaths while staying home may have been prevented if they had normal medical access. I know for a fact that people are afraid to go to the doctor or the hospital because of the scare put on by the news and our government's medical experts.
PS--To test my estimates think about what percentage of people with diabetes and heart disease are in rest homes? In my data it is about 10 to 1. Note, the USA obesity rate is about 7 times that of China and much of the world.
Let's start with a few key facts and go from there. The latest count on deaths for NY is 20,828 and the population of the state is 8.5 million. That means the deaths so far are at the rate of 0.245% or 2.45 per 1,000 people. It gets more difficult from here on.
The reporting is that approximately 25% of those deaths were in nursing homes or 5,207. I am not sure if this includes the 1,700 they reported that they miscounted or if this number includes some in the nursing homes who would have died anyway of existing conditions. From other data of those who died in nursing homes, 93% had a serious prior health conditions and 85% had at least two. The number that I can not find is how many people in total are in nursing homes in New York.
To keep this analysis going, I am going to make some educated estimates and here they are:
Group %/Pop Pop # Deaths Deaths/1000
* people in nursing homes------------------------0.5% 42,500 5,207 122.5
* people working--------------------------------- 20.0% 1,700,000 3,124 1.8
* people staying home & not healthy -----5.5% 467,500 7,141 25.3
* People staying home & healthy---------74.0% 6,290,000 5,356 0.9
Total-------------100.0 % 8,500,000 20,828 13.8
That is 100% of the people. Now, what is the deaths in each group. According the Governor 60% were people who were staying at home. This means that 12,497 died at home. I estimated that at least 5.5% per thousand were not healthy and should die at close to the same rate as those in nursing homes or 20%. Now it gets a little tricky. Look at my chart. All the numbers add up so there is nothing left out. I stand by my basic estimates too.
Here is my conclusion:
The death rate is the worst in the nursing homes at 122.5 per thousand and staying home is the best for healthy people, but we know that healthy people would mostly be OK anyway. We know that a lot of those who stay home are over weight and have health problems like diabetes so 25.3 per thousand or about 20% of the rate of nursing home death rate looks about right. Finally for working people. Many of these are in very dangerous positions and many are also over weight and may have health problems themselves so a rate of 1.8 per thousand does seem logical.
Now that you have seen my numbers, what should be think and what should we do next? My guess is that healthy people go back to work and the death rate per thousand would go up from 0.9 to about 1.5 per thousand. What do you think and do you think it is worth it? Remember that more people are dying by just staying home from other causes. I don't have that number, but it looks to me like we would end up with fewer deaths in total if we all got back to work except those at greatest risk!
Note also that some of the 0,9 deaths while staying home may have been prevented if they had normal medical access. I know for a fact that people are afraid to go to the doctor or the hospital because of the scare put on by the news and our government's medical experts.
PS--To test my estimates think about what percentage of people with diabetes and heart disease are in rest homes? In my data it is about 10 to 1. Note, the USA obesity rate is about 7 times that of China and much of the world.
