It is difficult to judge between different decisions or alternatives it you don't have a clear means of judging the merits of the different decisions or alternatives. This blog will try to shed some light on this important point.
We all know that one can not live for ever., but we would like to live as long "as possible". Maybe that should have been as long "as economical" or as long "as justifiable". or as long " as fair". Think about a life boat with 5 or 10 people on it. All would like to live as long "as possible", but what exactly is that? Starting to see how complicated this is?
Most people have thought little about this subject and thus are in a very poor position to cast a vote. Here are a few simple facts that might help. What is the average age of persons in the USA? I looked it up and it is approximately 38. What is the average life expectancy? It is about 80. What does that really mean? If we start off with 100 people born on the same day, 50% will have died by age 80. Where it gets a little more complicated is if you as a person who is 65, how long they expect to live it won't be 15 years. It will be more and the reason for that is that he is now a part of a different statistical group, not the ones he was born with. Many of those have already died. He can expect to live much longer than just 15 years. How about a person who is 85, how long can they expect to live? They too are part of a different statistical group because they have already lived to age 85. Starting to see where this is going?
How can the average age of the USA be 38 when the average life expectancy is 80? It is because we keep adding young people at the bottom faster than those at the top die. In Japan, where the birth rate is less than the death rate, the average age is actually going up. Their average life expectancy is going up too, but that is due to a different cause.
With this preparation, let's get into the Coronavirus. I am going to start using those 100 people born on the same day that were the basis for the 80 year life expectancy. I am going to estimate the number of "life years this group of 100 experienced by the area under the cure.made up of two trapezoids. the first is from at zero to 80. The area is 6,000. The area of the triangle from 80 to 100 is 500. This is logical if you think about it. Ask yourself, "how much living was there by this group of 100 before age 80 compared to after 80. By the numbers 12 times as much living took place before age 80. The total amount of living turns out to be 6,500 life years.
Now, let's see what the impact would be if the curve ended at 90 years rather than 100 for that 50% who did not die due to the coronavirus. That number turns out to be 250. Here is the impact on that 6,500 life years 3.8% reduction in life years. That was if 50% of those over 80 died early. Even if all of those over 80 died at age 80, we would only be looking a a reduction in life years of 7.7% in life years.
Here is another point that we should think about. We spend about 18% of our GNP on medical and of that over 50% is spent in the last 3 years of life. What are we getting for that amount of money and reduction in the quality of life for the others? Some how we have to start thinking in terms of the big picture and not just saving grandma, no matter how much it cost. If those people in that life boat only thought like we now are thinking about the coronavirus, you can bet that 100% of those in that life boat would die!
We all know that one can not live for ever., but we would like to live as long "as possible". Maybe that should have been as long "as economical" or as long "as justifiable". or as long " as fair". Think about a life boat with 5 or 10 people on it. All would like to live as long "as possible", but what exactly is that? Starting to see how complicated this is?
Most people have thought little about this subject and thus are in a very poor position to cast a vote. Here are a few simple facts that might help. What is the average age of persons in the USA? I looked it up and it is approximately 38. What is the average life expectancy? It is about 80. What does that really mean? If we start off with 100 people born on the same day, 50% will have died by age 80. Where it gets a little more complicated is if you as a person who is 65, how long they expect to live it won't be 15 years. It will be more and the reason for that is that he is now a part of a different statistical group, not the ones he was born with. Many of those have already died. He can expect to live much longer than just 15 years. How about a person who is 85, how long can they expect to live? They too are part of a different statistical group because they have already lived to age 85. Starting to see where this is going?
How can the average age of the USA be 38 when the average life expectancy is 80? It is because we keep adding young people at the bottom faster than those at the top die. In Japan, where the birth rate is less than the death rate, the average age is actually going up. Their average life expectancy is going up too, but that is due to a different cause.
With this preparation, let's get into the Coronavirus. I am going to start using those 100 people born on the same day that were the basis for the 80 year life expectancy. I am going to estimate the number of "life years this group of 100 experienced by the area under the cure.made up of two trapezoids. the first is from at zero to 80. The area is 6,000. The area of the triangle from 80 to 100 is 500. This is logical if you think about it. Ask yourself, "how much living was there by this group of 100 before age 80 compared to after 80. By the numbers 12 times as much living took place before age 80. The total amount of living turns out to be 6,500 life years.
Now, let's see what the impact would be if the curve ended at 90 years rather than 100 for that 50% who did not die due to the coronavirus. That number turns out to be 250. Here is the impact on that 6,500 life years 3.8% reduction in life years. That was if 50% of those over 80 died early. Even if all of those over 80 died at age 80, we would only be looking a a reduction in life years of 7.7% in life years.
Here is another point that we should think about. We spend about 18% of our GNP on medical and of that over 50% is spent in the last 3 years of life. What are we getting for that amount of money and reduction in the quality of life for the others? Some how we have to start thinking in terms of the big picture and not just saving grandma, no matter how much it cost. If those people in that life boat only thought like we now are thinking about the coronavirus, you can bet that 100% of those in that life boat would die!
