I know that it is difficult for most people to handle more than one variable at a time. I think that there are at least three variables that need to be considered to have a basic understanding of the economy. and those are (1) What is the GNP doing (2) What is happening with productivity(3) What is happening with population growth.
Let's first look at Japan. Their economy has not been growing, but their population is also going down at the same time. That means if the economy just stayed the same while the population went down, then the average person would be richer. Is that so bad? I thought that was the basic objective. Japan has another problem and that is they have few natural resources so that their wealth has to come from "value added labor". Japan has increased its efficiency to off set the decline in population. That is good! The problem with efficiency, is that there are a lot of other people around the world who will work for less and the amount less can easily off set Japan's greater efficiency. In today's world, if a country's economy is based on "value added labor", they are very vulnerable to lower labor rates some place in the world. Transportation cost used to be a type of protection, but not any more. With efficient container freight and supper tankers and super container ships, it cost less to ship from China to New York City than from L.A. to NYC by train. Now that the Panama cannel can handle super container ships, our own East coast is in for economic troubles, because products from China will now be cheaper, plus some train workers will be out of jobs.
Now, the USA. Our population is growing due to breeding and by immigration. The problem is that the breeding is mostly by the poorest segment of the population and it is the same with immigration. Given that the modern economy values intellect more than a strong back, this means that most of our growth in population is by the segment with the lowest intellect. That mean that our population growth is at direct odds with what the modern economy needs. This spells serious trouble in the long run for the USA. Further, given the slow growth rate of the economy and the destructive growth in the population, the median family income will continue to go down as it has during the past 7 years.
It is clear that intellect is the economic currency of the future suplemented with education, but education can "not" totally off set the lack of intellect in the population. That is the hard fact. It is clear that the USA economy is shifting toward an intellect paced economy. This is born out by the fact that those people and jobs that demand intellect are growing while those based on non-intellect value added are going down. It just happens that those in the intellect area have off set the losses by those in simple value added. The problem is, "What happens to those who lost their jobs?" Retraining can not compensate for lack of intellect. It would be nice if it could and this is what our politicians are selling to the unemployed masses. All that I ask is that you show me where retraining has ever worked.
Intellect like energy, the world has a limited supply. What we are seeing is a process of exploitation of the worlds intellect, just like we are of it energy and mineral supplies. At some point, it will become clear to all that we have exhausted the supply of intellect and will evolve toward a "steady state" where wealth will move faster and faster toward those with intellect leaving the less qualified farther and farther behind. It is happening now, but it will get worse and it will happen faster.
Let's first look at Japan. Their economy has not been growing, but their population is also going down at the same time. That means if the economy just stayed the same while the population went down, then the average person would be richer. Is that so bad? I thought that was the basic objective. Japan has another problem and that is they have few natural resources so that their wealth has to come from "value added labor". Japan has increased its efficiency to off set the decline in population. That is good! The problem with efficiency, is that there are a lot of other people around the world who will work for less and the amount less can easily off set Japan's greater efficiency. In today's world, if a country's economy is based on "value added labor", they are very vulnerable to lower labor rates some place in the world. Transportation cost used to be a type of protection, but not any more. With efficient container freight and supper tankers and super container ships, it cost less to ship from China to New York City than from L.A. to NYC by train. Now that the Panama cannel can handle super container ships, our own East coast is in for economic troubles, because products from China will now be cheaper, plus some train workers will be out of jobs.
Now, the USA. Our population is growing due to breeding and by immigration. The problem is that the breeding is mostly by the poorest segment of the population and it is the same with immigration. Given that the modern economy values intellect more than a strong back, this means that most of our growth in population is by the segment with the lowest intellect. That mean that our population growth is at direct odds with what the modern economy needs. This spells serious trouble in the long run for the USA. Further, given the slow growth rate of the economy and the destructive growth in the population, the median family income will continue to go down as it has during the past 7 years.
It is clear that intellect is the economic currency of the future suplemented with education, but education can "not" totally off set the lack of intellect in the population. That is the hard fact. It is clear that the USA economy is shifting toward an intellect paced economy. This is born out by the fact that those people and jobs that demand intellect are growing while those based on non-intellect value added are going down. It just happens that those in the intellect area have off set the losses by those in simple value added. The problem is, "What happens to those who lost their jobs?" Retraining can not compensate for lack of intellect. It would be nice if it could and this is what our politicians are selling to the unemployed masses. All that I ask is that you show me where retraining has ever worked.
Intellect like energy, the world has a limited supply. What we are seeing is a process of exploitation of the worlds intellect, just like we are of it energy and mineral supplies. At some point, it will become clear to all that we have exhausted the supply of intellect and will evolve toward a "steady state" where wealth will move faster and faster toward those with intellect leaving the less qualified farther and farther behind. It is happening now, but it will get worse and it will happen faster.
