Monday, March 9, 2015

Ferguson, Another Way To Look At The Statistics

I have been reviewing the statistics on Ferguson presented by Obama regarding their police department and see that some clarification is in order.  There are a lot more statistics about Ferguson that I would like to have, but I will try to work with what I have.

The basic bias of Obama is based on the fact that Ferguson is 2/3 Blank and 1/3 non-black and the people who are arrested for serious crimes arre 90% Black. This does not show or prove that there is something wrong with the police in Ferguson, it only proves that these numbers are not "random".  They are clearly different from data from cities that are 2/3 Asian or 2/3 any other race.  We need to see if there is some other reason for these statistics other than biased police and I think that I can show that.

Let's start out by looking as some additional facts or statistics about Blacks compared to non-Blacks.  It is a fact that Black males drop out of school at much higher rates than do non-Black males.  It is also a fact that the crime rate among young males who drop out of school is much higher than those for young males who graduate from high school. My first step is to see how many of young males we have in Ferguson who have dropped out of school.  My data shows that 50% of Black males do not graduate and 15% of non-Black males do not graduate.  Let's assume that we start with 100 people from Ferguson in the same exact mix as the population.  That means we have 67 Blacks and 33 non-Blacks.  With me on this?  Next, let's see how many drop out we have by using my numbers above.  With simple math, we find that we have 33.5 Blacks and 5.0 non-Blacks.  What this shows is that if you were walking down any street in Ferguson in the middle of the day that you would find that 87% of the drop outs would be Black and 13% would be non-Black.  We all know that these are the two groups who commit a disproportionate percentage of the crime in any city.

Next, did you notice that 100% of the Blacks who have been killed by police around the nation have been resisting arrest?  If you did not know that, then you do not have your eyes open.  The most recent killing in Madison, Wi is a case where the Black kid attacked the police.  I do not know why, but the data shows that Blacks are at least twice as likely to resist arrest than are non-Blacks.  If that is the case, let's apply that fact to the above numbers.  If 50% of the 33.5 Blacks resist arrest that means 16.75 would have resisted arrest and possibly injured.  If 25% of the non-Blacks resisted arrest, that means we would have 2.5 non-whites who would have possibly been injured.  This now shows that of those people who were injured while resisting arrest would be 93% Black while non-Blacks only account for 7%.

If you are honest and understand 4th grade math, it will be clear that the statistics that Obama used to try to blame the Ferguson police showed that the police were doing just what they should have been doing and that there is a crime problem in Ferguson and it is due to the conduct of the Black community not the Ferguson police department.  The Ferguson police department does not need to be retrained, the Black community has to take responsibility for their anti-social conduct.

PS---I know people who live in Ferguson and they are God fearing church going people who would not even "J" walk.  Another way to change the statistics for Ferguson would be for the non-Blacks to commit "more" crimes or for the Ferguson police department to hire more cops to petrol the non-Black neighborhoods where there is little crime.  Is this crazy or what?