Have you noticed that the politicians can't seem to come to an agreement about whether or not the Somali who tried to kill students at Ohio State is a "terrorist" or not? What we need is a better understanding about basic English and Bayes Theorem. We have to figure out how to communicate where everything is not "exact". I have blogged before that it is almost impossible to be exact about anything. Ask yourself, "How sure do you have to be to call this Somali a terrorist"? Is it 90% or 99% or 100%?
I think that we should use the same criteria that we now use for "Global Warming" for terrorism. How sure do you think these same politicians are when they claim that "Global Warming" is the most serious problem facing the world? I am not sure that it is even 50%-50%, but see how they climb onto the bandwagon? Our legal system with our jury system has convicted a small percentage innocent people to death and we don't complain about that as much as we wring our hands over calling "terrorists" "Radical Islamist Terrorists".
If you read my prior blogs on Bayes Theorem then you know that it takes into account "prior" knowledge about the world rather than taking on every decision like it is the very first one that has ever occurred. What do you think are the chances that this Somali is a "Radical Muslim Terrorist" given the facts that he is a Somali, a Muslim, drove his car into a crowd and slashed many with a knife. Just based on these facts and prior history of events like this, my estimate is 99% that he is a "Radical Muslim Terrorist". I know that it is not 100% like most political liberals would want.
Do me a favor and take into account your prior knowledge about the world when you have to judge events like this. If you do, you will be using Bayes Theorem!!!
I think that we should use the same criteria that we now use for "Global Warming" for terrorism. How sure do you think these same politicians are when they claim that "Global Warming" is the most serious problem facing the world? I am not sure that it is even 50%-50%, but see how they climb onto the bandwagon? Our legal system with our jury system has convicted a small percentage innocent people to death and we don't complain about that as much as we wring our hands over calling "terrorists" "Radical Islamist Terrorists".
If you read my prior blogs on Bayes Theorem then you know that it takes into account "prior" knowledge about the world rather than taking on every decision like it is the very first one that has ever occurred. What do you think are the chances that this Somali is a "Radical Muslim Terrorist" given the facts that he is a Somali, a Muslim, drove his car into a crowd and slashed many with a knife. Just based on these facts and prior history of events like this, my estimate is 99% that he is a "Radical Muslim Terrorist". I know that it is not 100% like most political liberals would want.
Do me a favor and take into account your prior knowledge about the world when you have to judge events like this. If you do, you will be using Bayes Theorem!!!
